Jinda Noipho
Over the years, one data point I’ve noticed is that many S&P 500 valuation models use a long-run S&P 500 EPS growth metric of 7% to estimate fair value on the benchmark.
- During the 1980s and 1990s, the
Long-Term S&P 500 Earnings Trends Along With Market Returns
Summary
- Over the years, one data point I’ve noticed is that many S&P 500 valuation models use a long-run S&P 500 EPS growth metric of 7% to estimate fair value on the benchmark.
- If you look at S&P 500 returns over these longer time periods, you’ll see the return on the S&P 500 benchmark, roughly mirrors the longer-term growth (or decline) of S&P 500 earnings.
- The last 4 quarters or basically 2024 have seen tech grow faster than “average” through the first two quarters of ’24, and then slower than average through the last two quarters of ’24.
- Financial sector EPS growth was even stronger than the tech sector’s growth. From Q4 ’11 through Q4 ’23, the financial sector averaged +15.8% y-o-y growth.
Brian Gilmartin, is a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, a firm he founded in May, 1995, catering to individual investors and institutions that werent getting the attention and service deserved, from larger firms. Brian started in the business as a fixed-income / credit analyst, with a Chicago broker-dealer, and then worked at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago, from 1992 - 1995, before striking out on his own and managing equity and balanced accounts for clients. Brian has a BSBA (Finance) from Xavier University, Cincinnati, Ohio, (1982) and an MBA (Finance) from Loyola University, Chicago, January, 1985. The CFA was awarded in 1994. Brian has been fortunate enough to write for the TheStreet.com from 2000 to 2012, and then the WallStreet AllStars from August 2011, to Spring, 2012. Brian also wrote for Minyanville.com, and has been quoted in numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal.