Apple's Stock Price: How Much Growth Is Priced In?

(30min)

Summary

  • We reverse-engineered Apple’s share price to uncover implicit investor expectations of earnings growth.
  • Apple’s share price reflects huge expectations of abnormal earnings growth. Apple investors are currently paying a premium worth $109.20 ($1.14 trillion), or $100.11%, for their implicit expectations of abnormal earnings.
  • How much growth are Apple investors expecting? Apple’s share price embeds expectations of earnings growth of 27.38% per annum from 2025 through 2029.
  • Can Apple grow that fast? We assess Apple’s abnormal earnings growth potential, in light of past performance and future business opportunities (and risks).
  • Focus on AI impact. AI technologies are agents of "creative destruction." We analyze the potential for an abnormal change in earnings in Apple’s future, driven by AI technologies.
  • Successful Portfolio Strategy members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolio. See all our investments here »
Apple Store at 5th Ave in Manhattan, New York City

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Equity analysts who cover Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) devote tremendous efforts to forecasting the company’s future fundamentals by sifting through company filings, parsing every word of conference call transcripts, and building sophisticated financial models. Their goal: To estimate the “intrinsic value” of the company and/or to provide

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This article was written by

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James A. Kostohryz has 20+ years of experience as a global investment professional. He has worked as an analyst at one of the world's largest asset management firms covering emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. He has also served as Global Portfolio Strategist and Head of International Investments for an investment bank. He is currently managing Investor Acumen, a firm specializing in global portfolio strategy, macro forecasting, and quant analytics.

James is the leader of the investing group Successful Portfolio Strategy, a service designed to empower investors to achieve investment performance through implementation of a portfolio strategy system. Features include: 2 model portfolios, tactical asset allocation and mentorship for execution, analysis via video and articles, and more. Learn More.

James also contributes to the group account Investor Acumen on Seeking Alpha.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

All positions disclosed to members of Successful Portfolio Strategy.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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