Nvidia's $185 Technical Setup: Blackwell Could Trigger The Breakout

Yiannis Zourmpanos
9.3K Followers
(13min)

Summary

  • Nvidia reported $130.5B in FY25 revenue, up 114% YoY, with $39.3B in Q4 alone, rising 78% YoY.
  • Blackwell architecture offers 25x higher token throughput and 20x lower cost than Hopper, driving $11B in Q4 sales.
  • Nvidia’s forward PEG ratio of 0.76 suggests undervaluation as markets overlook its AI platform economics and infrastructure dominance.
  • Technicals show consolidation with RSI at 41.36 and VPT below average at 21.91B vs. 22.14B, signaling potential breakout setup.

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Investment Thesis

Since our last coverage, Nvidia Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has declined by 12%, underperforming the S&P 500's 4.4% drop. While Nvidia has provided solid results, market sentiment has turned cautious (based on range bound stock price movement). Our current thesis

This article was written by

9.3K Followers
Yiannis Zourmpanos, founder of Yiazou IQ, an AI-driven stock research platform providing all-in-one stock reports. Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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