After Liberation Day's Tariffs, I Rate Trump's Economic Policy A D-

Apr. 03, 2025 9:15 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500), SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, DJI, , , , , 207 Comments
Geneva Investor
1.99K Followers

Summary

  • In his first 70 days as the 47th US President, Trump has implemented numerous executive orders focusing on economics, including DOGE (saving $140B), energy deregulation, federal hiring freeze, and tariffs.
  • Policies like DOGE and hiring freezes slightly reduce GDP and inflation; however, tariffs (and especially those announced on April 2nd) are negative for GDP and highly inflationary.
  • "Reciprocal" tariffs (e.g., 20% EU, 24% Japan) seem to me based on arbitrary figures (e.g., VAT mischaracterized), risking stagflation and market uncertainty, with S&P 500 futures dropping 3% post-announcement.
  • Trump aims to reclaim manufacturing jobs (11% of GDP) via tariffs, but this overlooks the dominant service sector (75%+ of GDP), where the US has a trade surplus (e.g., $109B with EU). This looks to me like the worst deal ever conceived by an administration.
  • I rate Trump's economic policy so far a D-, not an F, based on the hope that it is only phase 1 of a broader strategy where the real objective is inducing a quick US recession and force a Fed pivot.
Fire raging in domestic kitchen at night

Michael Blann

It’s been just over 70 days since Trump became the 47th US President, and I have rarely seen a President start so aggressively on economics, signing so many executive orders. Here’s a summary of his main economic policies so far and their effects

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