ManpowerGroup: Downgrade To Strong Sell On High Likelihood Of Earnings Miss

Apr. 20, 2025 8:25 AM ETManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) StockMAN

Summary

  • I am downgrading ManpowerGroup (MAN) to a strong sell due to accelerating revenue decline, poor European macro, and likely negative estimate revisions.
  • 1Q25 results show no stabilization, with total revenue down 7.1% y/y and adjusted EPS falling 53.4% y/y to $0.44.
  • The European macro environment is deteriorating, driven by U.S. tariffs and ECB rate cuts, severely impacting MAN's core regions.
  • Despite a forward PE of ~10x, I see further downside to MAN's stock, especially if 2Q25 EPS guidance is missed.

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Investment summary

My previous investment thought on ManpowerGroup (NYSE:MAN) was a sell rating because I believed the business's near-term outlook was structurally impaired, and with the stock still trading at 12.5x, I saw downside to the stock. True

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I focus on long-term investments while incorporating short-term shorts to uncover alpha opportunities. My investment approach revolves around bottom-up analysis, delving into the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies. My investment duration is the medium to long-term. Ultimately, I aim to identify companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential.

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