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Trump Reignites Fed Feud
Last week, we discussed the “tariff reprieve” that sent stocks ripping higher in the 3rd largest one-day advance on record.
“As we said last week, any good news would cause the market to rally
Is Risk-Off Positioning Signaling A Market Low?
Summary
- While the markets await the next Fed Reserve meeting, the uncertainty over monetary policy weighs on markets as much as the uncertainty about tariffs.
- This past week, the market reversed some of its gains from the massive "tariff reprieve" surge. With the MACD back on a buy signal and money flows turning positive, buyers are tepidly stepping back into the market. The 20-DMA continues to act as overhead resistance, defining the current downtrend.
- Currently, market sentiment is extremely negative based on various measures, from investment positioning to overall investor sentiment. Net bullish sentiment among retail and institutional investors is at some of the lowest levels on record, including during the "Financial Crisis".
- However, it is worth noting that during previous instances when sentiment was as negative as it is currently, such readings were near market bottoms.
- When overall risk-off sentiment and positioning are at levels normally coincident with market bottoming processes, the technical indicators have also become so risk-off that they signal risk-on behavior.
After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a partner at RIA Advisors in Houston, Texas.
The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process.
I am a managing partner of RIA Pro, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed to individual and professional investors nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life.
I also write a daily blog which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals at www.realinvestmentadvice.com.