The Fed's Beige Book Raises The Alarm

Summary

• The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reveals mixed economic activity across districts, with some growth and some declines, highlighting uncertainty, especially among importers.
• Non-auto consumer spending is down, but vehicle and nondurable sales are up due to tariff-related price hikes; travel and international visitors are down.
• Home sales have increased slightly with low inventory, commercial real estate sees slight expansion, and the energy sector shows modest growth.
• The labor market and prices are a focus, with the Fed's Dual Mandate aiming for maximum employment and price stability amidst economic uncertainty and potential GDP contraction.
• I go over the sum of the parts and how each district contributed to the overall picture, highlighting regionality in the economic trajectory of the U.S.

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Introduction

On April 23rd, the Federal Reserve published its latest edition of Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, or the "Beige Book" as it's most-commonly known. The report is 56 pages, a little

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