ozgurdonmaz
Co-Authored by Noah Cox and Brock Heilig
Investment Thesis
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares are down almost 18% year-to-date and more than 7% in the last six months. In my opinion, a big reason for this recent sell off is because of the
Apple: Worst Part Of The Trade War
Summary
- Apple's reliance on China for supply chain and revenue makes it vulnerable to the U.S.-China trade war, leading to a strong sell rating.
- Q2 2025 earnings showed declining Chinese iPhone shipments and increased tariffs, indicating significant margin compression and weakening demand.
- Despite beating EPS and revenue expectations, Apple's high P/E ratio and downward revisions suggest an unsustainable valuation.
- Manufacturing diversification efforts may help, but current geopolitical risks and tariff threats make Apple's stock unattractive at its current valuation.
This account is managed by Noah's Arc Capital Management. Our goal is provide Wall Street level insights to main street investors. Our research focus is mainly on 20th century stocks (old economy) undergoing a 21st century transformation, but occasionally we'll write on companies that help transform 20th century firms as well. We look for innovations in a business model that will cause a stock to change dramatically. Associated with SA contributor Elijah Buell.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GOOGL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Noah Cox (main account author) is the managing partner of Noah’s Arc Capital Management. His views in this article are not necessarily reflective of the firms. Nothing contained in this note is intended as investment advice. It is solely for informational purposes. Invest at your own risk.
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