No Growth, No Margins, No Thanks: Why I'm Out On SMCI

(6min)

Summary

  • Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s Q3 results reveal struggles, with no clear catalysts, growth, or innovation, making it a value trap.
  • Q1 earnings met expectations, but SMCI growth fell QoQ; future revenue hinges on DCBBS and Blackwell ramp-up.
  • Mounting issues include unconfirmed $40 billion revenue outlook by 2026, gross margin drops, and potential inventory write-downs.
  • Technical analysis shows bearish trends; risks outweigh potential, making SMCI stock's investability questionable in the near term.

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Thesis Summary

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) ("Supermicro") published its fiscal Q3 results last week, and it’s not looking pretty.

What I once saw as a good opportunity to buy a stock at a steep discount has now

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This article was written by

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James Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth.

The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide investors of all levels in their journey. Features include a The Pragmatic Investor Portfolio, weekly market update newsletter, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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