Impact Of Trump Tariffs On S&P 500 Earnings

David Kotok
2.65K Followers
(9min)

Summary

  • I never expected that the 145% (reciprocal plus base) tariffs between the US and China would last. The reason? They are simply too high and, therefore, discouraged most trade.
  • We have no way to know what any final tariff levels will be. We can only guess. And the second-derivative changes are likely to make the impact of tariffs on earnings worse.
  • Here I have attempted to estimate the impact of Trump’s tariff war on US corporate earnings, with an assumption that the most significant change is the amount of the tax.

USD dollar banknote with USA flag and stock market graph chart for currency exchange and global trade forex concept.

Dilok Klaisataporn

Originally published on May 18, 2025

After this report was finalized, Moody’s downgraded the United States, which has now lost the prestigious AAA rating by the three biggest services. Fitch and Standard & Poor’s had already downgraded America. I’ll have more to say

This article was written by

2.65K Followers
David Kotok (personal website: www.davidkotok.com, new book website, www.thefedandtheflu.com) co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and was its Chief Investment Officer from inception until December 2024. David’s articles and financial market commentaries have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and other publications. He has been a contributor to Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio, Yahoo Finance TV, and other media. He has authored or co-authored five books, including the newest one released in 2025, for details: www.thefedandtheflu.com . He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and an M.A. in philosophy from the University of Pennsylvania.David was Program Chairman and a Director of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), www.interdependence.org , whose mission is to encourage the expansion of global dialogue and free trade in order to improve cooperation and understanding among nation states, with the goal of reducing international conflicts and improving worldwide living standards. David chaired its Central Banking Series and organized a five-continent dialogue held in Cape Town, Hong Kong, Hanoi, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Prague, Rome, Santiago, Shanghai, Singapore, Tallinn, and Zambia (Livingstone). He has received the Global Citizen Award from GIC for his efforts. David is a member of the National Business Economics Issues Council (NBEIC), the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), has served on the Research Advisory Board of BCA Research and is currently on the advisory board of RiskBridge Advisors. He has also served as a Commissioner of the Delaware River Port Authority (DRPA) and on the Treasury Transition Teams for New Jersey Governors Kean and Whitman. Additionally, he has served as a board member of the New Jersey Economic Development Authority and as Chairman of the New Jersey Casino Reinvestment Development Authority.

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