Lam Research: Neutral With Technology Tailwinds Priced In

Moretus Research
418 Followers
(11min)

Summary

  • We rate Lam Research Neutral with a $97 target, as strong tech drivers are already priced into the premium valuation.
  • Lam's leadership in gate-all-around, HBM, and advanced packaging supports above-consensus FY26 earnings, but upside is limited by cyclical and geopolitical risks.
  • China exposure remains a major structural overhang, creating earnings volatility and capping multiple expansion potential, despite operational strengths.
  • We recommend patience; Lam is best bought on a pullback or policy inflection, as current risk/reward is balanced and upside catalysts are lacking.
microchip technology

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Key thesis

We initiate on Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) with a Neutral rating and a $97 price target. Lam Research manufactures, designs and services advanced processing equipment used by global semiconductor OEMs. While we model solid earnings momentum in the form of $4.01 EPS for

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418 Followers
Moretus Research delivers state-of-the-art, buy-side quality equity research for serious investors seeking clarity, conviction, and alpha. Focused on U.S. public markets, Moretus applies a structured, repeatable framework to identify companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation. Built on institutional standards, Moretus Research combines rigorous fundamental analysis with a high-signal, judgment-driven process—eschewing noise, narrative, and overly complex forecasting. Valuation is based on pragmatic, sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company’s business model and capital structure, with an emphasis on comparability, simplicity, and relevance. Research coverage tends to favor underappreciated companies undergoing structural change or temporary dislocation—situations where dispassionate analysis and variant perception can lead to asymmetric returns. All work reflects a deep respect for capital, discipline, and long-term compounding. Moretus Research aims to raise the standard for independent investment research—providing professional-grade insights, actionable valuation, and a strong filter for what truly matters in modern equity analysis.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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