Gold Forecast: Stagflation Risk May Reignite Bulls

Summary

• Gold rose 19% in Q1 2025, outperforming major asset classes like the S&P 500, US Dollar Index, and Bitcoin.
• After hitting an all-time high of US$3,500 on 22 April, Gold corrected 10% to US$3,120 by 15 May, driven by a stronger US dollar and improved risk sentiment.
• Weak US consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations suggest a lingering stagflation threat, supporting potential demand for Gold as a hedge.
• The 10% decline found support at the 50-day moving average, with bullish elements emerging, including a higher low and RSI stabilization.
• A break above US$3,305 could trigger a bullish reversal toward US$3,435–US$3,500, while a drop below US$3,056 may expose deeper support levels near US$2,833.

KanawatTH

By Kevlin Wong

Gold has staged an impressive positive performance of 19% in the first quarter of 2025, which even outperformed other cross asset classes, such as the US S&P 500 (-4.6%), US Dollar Index (-4%), and Bitcoin/USD (-11.7%) over the same period.