Alibaba Q4: Intrinsic Value Amid Potential Long-Term Geo-Harmony (Upgrade)

Oliver Rodzianko
4.02K Followers
(10min)

Summary

  • Alibaba Group Holding Limited delivered solid 7% revenue and 36% EBITA growth despite geopolitics; its cloud segment's surging AI demand signals massive long-term potential—but watch U.S.-China relations closely.
  • Alibaba's fundamental undervaluation (~12x earnings) could unlock substantial upside if China shifts toward diplomatic harmony with the West—aligning its intrinsic value with global tech giants.
  • Alibaba’s long-term thesis hinges significantly on China embracing open, capitalist-friendly diplomacy; alignment here would dramatically amplify returns from today's valuation.

Chinese and American flags waving together against blue sky. 3D render

rarrarorro/iStock via Getty Images

Since my last analysis of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), the stock has lost 8% in price.

Alibaba's fiscal fourth quarter FY2025 was marked by resilience amid a plethora of macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Alibaba

This article was written by

4.02K Followers
Oliver Rodzianko is a macro-focused investment analyst with a global perspective and a focus on public equity strategy. His approach is grounded in valuation discipline and long-term fundamentals, with emphasis on sectors including technology, semiconductors, AI, and energy. He is U.S.-market centered, with international awareness informing his process. He manages a long-only, unleveraged portfolio designed to preserve capital and capture asymmetric upside around key market dislocations. Positions are held through medium-term cycles and exited based on intrinsic value. His research is published on Seeking Alpha, TipRanks, and GuruFocus. At the core of his work is the Nasdaq High-Alpha Black Swan Portfolio—a private strategy structured for resilience and long-term outperformance. He is in the process of formalizing this framework within an asset management firm, alongside developing a family office focused on lower-volatility capital stewardship.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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