Nvidia Has A Demand Problem

ValueAnalyst
9.63K Followers
(7min)

Summary

  • Nvidia Corporation's Q1 FY 2026 earnings are highly anticipated, but the company's demand outlook is troubling. An illustrative example shows why the common rhetoric of ever-growing AI investments is short-sighted.
  • I value Nvidia at $1.9T, 40% below its current $3.2T market cap, and maintain a SELL rating based on my DCF analysis.
  • NVDA stock experienced significant volatility, dropping 30% then fully recovering, mirroring the S&P 500 but with greater swings, and I expect the next leg to be down.

Aspirations

Daniel Grizelj

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) will announce results for its Q1 FY 2026 ended April 27, 2025, after market close on Wednesday, May 28. In this article, I discuss the company's upcoming demand challenge, compare analyst expectations versus my most recent forecast, and

This article was written by

9.63K Followers
You'll never see me write a long bio listing all of my credentials and degrees or refer to myself in the third person. I love discussing ideas and I appreciate it when people can play devil's advocate without resorting to personal attacks. In short, I employ a long-only, long-horizon, focused value style, guided by thorough bottom-up research and backed by years of accounting and finance experience. When people ask me "what do you do?" I assume they mean for fun.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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