Twilio: Prepare For Takeoff With 80%+ Potential Upside

(15min)

Summary

  • Twilio's Q1 FY25 showed strong revenue and profit growth, with Communications accelerating and Segment stabilizing, with the dollar-based net expansion rate growing to 108%.
  • Management's AI-led product innovation and go-to-market execution are driving progress toward its long-term margin target of 21–22% by FY27 and a cumulative free cash flow of $3B during this period.
  • Consensus estimates remain conservative, but I see them as easily achievable as AI adoption intensifies and organizations increase spending on personalized communications.
  • With a price target of $216, I see 85% upside potential, believing TWLO is undervalued and poised for significant rerating if double-digit growth materializes.

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Introduction and Investment Thesis

I last wrote about Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) in January, where I reiterated my "buy" rating for the fourth time, after turning bullish in July 2024. While the stock is down close to 14% since

I am Amrita and I write primarily about growth software stocks.

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Amrita runs a boutique family office fund in beautiful Vancouver, where she leads the investment strategy for the family fund. The fund's objective is to invest capital in sustainable, growth-driven companies that maximize shareholder equity by meeting their growth-oriented goals. In addition, she also started her own award-winning newsletter, The Pragmatic Optimist which focuses on portfolio strategy, valuation, and macroeconomics in concert with her husband Uttam Dey who is also a contributor on Seeking Alpha. Prior to cofounding her fund, Amrita worked for 5 years in high-growth supply-chain start-ups in downtown San Francisco, where she led strategy. During her time in the Bay Area, she also worked with venture capital firms and start-ups, where her efforts led her to grow the user acquisition business. During this time, she was introduced to investment portfolios and was able to maximize returns for clients during the pandemic. The cornerstone of Amritas work rests on democratizing financial literacy for everyone and breaking down financial jargon and complex macroeconomic concepts into formats that are easily digestible but more empowering than the typical investment thesis. Her newsletter has been featured as the Top Newsletter in Finance on popular newsletter platforms and she aims to bring her ideas to Seeking Alpha as well.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TWLO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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