400tmax
Investment Thesis
The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration not only led to a new cost realignment for auto makers, but also shifted around the competitive landscape in the U.S. auto industry with specific charges on steel, aluminum
How Ford Is Secretly Winning From Trump's Tariff
Summary
- Ford’s domestic production and supply chain localization provide a significant cost advantage under Trump-era tariffs, minimizing exposure compared to Toyota, and Volkswagen.
- Strategic investments in U.S. manufacturing, vertical integration, and compliance with USMCA requirements ensure tariff resilience and secure Ford’s competitive edge.
- A DCF model supports a fair value of $14.63 per share, implying a 41.2% upside, driven by high-margin vehicles and operational efficiencies.
- Despite raw material cost risks, Ford’s capacity optimization, EV incentives, and focus on high-margin models underpin my strong buy recommendation.
Focused on long/short equity strategies, conducting deep fundamental analysis to pinpoint undervalued stocks for long positions and overvalued stocks for short positions in global equity markets. Built detailed financial models using discounted cash flow (DCF), relative valuation, and scenario analysis to evaluate company fundamentals, growth potential, and risks. Delivered high-conviction investment recommendations through comprehensive research, driving alpha generation for the fund. Monitored market trends, sector dynamics, and macroeconomic factors to adjust strategies and optimize portfolio performance in real time. Partnered with the Portfolio Manager to size positions, manage risk exposure, and navigate challenges like short squeezes or market volatility.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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