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Since the last time I covered the S&P 500, it has risen by almost 12%. The market seems to be becoming desensitized to the tariff narrative and the tariff truce between the U.S. and China certainly helped the
A Premature And Fragile S&P 500 Recovery
Summary
- I remain cautious on the S&P 500 due to high valuations, persistent trade policy volatility, and restrictive Fed policy.
- Recent earnings growth and a precarious tariff truce have fueled the market recovery, but risks from unresolved trade disputes and legal uncertainties remain high.
- Consumer sentiment and fund flows signal underlying market fragility, with soft data likely to soon impact hard economic indicators and earnings.
- Staying underweight the S&P 500 until trade tensions ease or valuations become more attractive is warranted.
I've been a self-taught investor since I was 19 years old and am currently developing a systematic macro strategy.
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