halbergman
Over the past few months, sentiment toward the oil market has been hit hard by a perfect storm of tariff induced growth fears thanks to Trump 2.0, and a faster than expected unwinding of the 2.2 mm b/d voluntary production cut
The Energy Bull Market Is Only A Matter Of Time
Summary
- Oil prices and energy stocks have sold off due to weak demand and OPEC+ production unwinds, but the long-term bull case remains intact.
- US oil production has plateaued, with little growth expected due to geological, financial, and productivity headwinds, supporting higher prices in the future.
- OPEC+ production increases are largely paper adjustments, with actual exports unlikely to rise materially, so bearish fears are overstated.
- Current bearish sentiment and low positioning set the stage for a future energy bull market, likely beginning in late 2025 or 2026.
Editor and publisher of AcheronInsights.com. Investment research centered around using the business cycle to your advantage and a "jack of all trades" approach, focusing on macro, fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and market structure.I am a CFA charterholder with a background in financial planning and investment analysis.
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