Commodities: U.S. Crude Oil Supply To Fall In 2026

Summary

• In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released yesterday, the EIA said output would decline by 50k b/d year on year in 2026 to 13.37m b/d. This would be the first annual decline in US output since 2021, when Covid hit production.
• Given our view that oil prices will be lower towards the end of this year, there’s scope for further downward revisions in US crude oil output estimates for next year.
• There’s growing uncertainty in the refined products market as the European Commission proposes a ban on imports made from Russian crude oil.

Torsten Asmus

By Warren Patterson

Energy - US oil production set to decline

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its US crude oil production estimates downward for 2026. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released yesterday, the EIA said output would decline by 50k