Graphic Packaging Holding: Near-Term Headwinds To Weigh On The Stock (Rating Downgrade)
Summary
- I am revising my rating on GPK to Hold due to significant near-term macro and cost headwinds despite a stronger long-term outlook.
- Competitive dynamics are improving, with capacity cuts and the new Waco mill supporting future margin expansion and profitability.
- Heavy capex is winding down, enabling substantial free cash flow and a $1.5 billion buyback, shifting the story to shareholder returns.
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