Sportsman's Warehouse Is Finally Turning Around

Caffital Research
1.62K Followers
(8min)

Summary

  • Sportsman's Warehouse has struggled in the past few years after the previous growth strategy backfired.
  • The recent Q1 report finally turned SPWH back to same-store sales growth. The FY2025 guidance suggests the turnaround to progress further, improving earnings.
  • SPWH's improved merchandising strategy has driven clear results as the company has gained market share.
  • While SPWH is a very risky investment, the stock is attractive. I estimate a 53% upside to $5.06 in a base scenario.

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPWH) has seen a strong stock recovery in the past couple of months. The outdoor sporting goods retailer finally returned to positive same-store sales growth in the most recent report after severe weakness in the past couple of years - a turnaround is progressing well. SPWH still remains on the edge with thin earnings and a good amount of debt, highlighting the importance of a good continuation.

I remained at a Buy rating in my previous June 2024 article on the stock a year ago, titled “Sportsman's Warehouse: Cheap But Risky After Weak Q1 And Strategic Shift”. The stock has now lost -1% of its value after a rollercoaster, still underperforming the S&P 500’s return of 12%.

Sportsman’s Warehouse Is Finally Turning Around, Maybe

SPWH has had a turbulent ride in the past couple of years. The company’s previous aggressive new store investments during heightened industry-wide firearm sales amidst the Covid pandemic backfired - same-store sales turned to a sharp decline, causing operating earnings to plummet. SPWH’s growth investments raised the company’s debt to an unsustainable level, pressuring the company further to shift its strategy to a more sustainable foundation.

Since, after significant issues, SPWH’s recently published fiscal Q1 report finally showed very encouraging turnaround signals. SPWH returned to positive 2% same-store sales growth after nearly four years of significant same-store sales declines – the sales performance is finally stabilizing. The quarter’s $249.1 million in total revenues beat Wall Street’s consensus by $10.9 million.

Making the sales stabilization in Q1 especially impressive, the consumer sentiment was pressured especially in the latter parts of the quarter, whereas SPWH still maintained healthy traffic. SPWH notes to have gained a very significant market share in firearm sales according to adjusted NICS data – SPWH’s firearm unit sales grew by 7%, while

This article was written by

1.62K Followers
I am an avid investor with a major focus on small cap companies with experience in investing in US, Canadian, and European markets. My investment philosophy to generating great returns on the stock market revolves around identifying mispriced securities by understanding the drivers behind a company's financials, and ultimately, most often revealed by a DCF model valuation. This methodology doesn't limit an investor into rigid traditional value, dividend, or growth investing, but rather accounts for all of a stock's prospects to determine the risk-to-reward.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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