Erikona
GTA VI-Driven Inflection Remains Core to Thesis
After months of investor anticipation, Take-Two Interactive has announced that the launch of GTA VI is now scheduled for May 26, 2026. This date is later than the previously
Take-Two Interactive: Is Burning Cash And Issuing Shares--GTA VI Better Be Worth It
Summary
- With FY25 results flat and FY26 now forecast as a muted transition year, there's little near-term upside to anchor TTWO the stock.
- The TTWO bull case rests firmly on a successful GTA VI launch in FY27, suggesting that the setup has become increasingly binary.
- Meanwhile, the company is issuing equity to patch over soft cash flows.
- Structurally, TTWO remains tethered to a volatile, hit-driven model that demands constant reinvention.
- At 16–17x EV/EBITDA, shares already price in a flawless FY27—leaving little room for error. My model suggests fair value sits closer to $118.
Experience as an investment analyst for a major BB-Bank, as well as private equity consultant for MBB. Currently working towards the CFA charter, having completed I&II. Passion for risk-assets (Growth, Contrarian, Emerging Market) ex-colleague and close friend of Investor Express
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Not financial advice
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