10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 'Fair Value' Estimate: June 12, 2025

Summary

• The market premium for the US Treasury yield remained mostly unchanged in May vs. a “fair value” estimate.
• The current average monthly fair-value estimate is 3.72%, which remains moderately below the actual 10-year yield.
• The year-over-year change for CPI at the headline level ticked down to 2.4%, moderately above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

cemagraphics

The market premium for the US Treasury yield remained mostly unchanged in May vs. a “fair value” estimate. As the 10-year yield continued to trade in a tight range last month, combined with virtually no change an model-based assessment of its fair value, today’s