Novavax: New Vaccine, Same Old Story - Still A Sell

(13min)

Summary

  • Novavax, Inc.'s valuation remains too high given its reliance on one-off revenues, uncertain royalties, and a complex Sanofi partnership.
  • The company's Q1 2025 earnings were boosted by non-recurring APA terminations; future revenue streams are limited and unpredictable.
  • Despite cost-cutting and a promising technology platform, Novavax faces profitability challenges, with 2026 and 2027 likely to see continued losses.
  • I maintain my Sell rating for NVAX, seeing fair value closer to $500m, as long-term prospects and revenue growth remain highly questionable.

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Investment Overview

My last two notes on Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) shared with Seeking Alpha readers, the first in October last year (2024), and the second at the end of February this

If you are interested in keeping up to date with stocks making moves within the biotech, pharma, and healthcare industries, and understanding the key trends and catalysts driving valuations ahead of the market, why not subscribe to my weekly newsletter via my Investing Group, Haggerston BioHealth?

This article was written by

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Edmund Ingham is a biotech consultant. He has been covering biotech, healthcare, and pharma for over 5 years, and has put together detailed reports of over 1,000 companies. He leads the investing group Haggerston BioHealth.

The group is for both novice and experienced biotech investors. It provides catalysts to look out for and buy and sell ratings. It also provides product sales and forecasts for all the Big Pharmas, forecasting, integrated financial statements, discounted cash flow analysis and market by market analysis. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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