DNY59
Purpose
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data
Weekly Indicators: USD And Consumer Spending Fade, While Oil Spikes Mean Stagflation?
Summary
- Long leading indicators remain neutral, with monetary and financial positives offset by declining corporate profits and mixed housing/yield spreads.
- Short leading indicators are also neutral, as improvements in commodities and stocks are balanced by weak gas usage and concerns over a declining US dollar.
- Coincident indicators stay positive, with consumer spending outpacing inflation, as tariff impacts and supply chain pressures have emerged.
- Overall, high-frequency data now suggest a "stagflation" environment, with little change week-over-week but underlying volatility and mixed economic signals.
New Deal democrat As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 yeas ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long leading, short leading, coincident, lagging and long lagging indicators. I also focus particularly on their effects on average working and middle class Americans.
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