The Fed Fires A Quiet Warning Shot

Jun. 19, 2025 9:30 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SPX), SP500, DJI, NDX, US10Y, , , , 5 Comments
Jack Bowman
Investing Group
(12min)

Summary

  • The Fed held rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, but the statement was more dovish than anticipated.
  • Futures still price in a chance of rate cuts later this year, though expectations may shift with new economic data.
  • I see a warning in the movements of the FOMC's projections since March and how many are now expecting higher rates, lower growth, and higher inflation, albeit "transitory" inflation.
  • However, Powell maintains that monetary policy is appropriately positioned, with no expectation of significant economic pain in the near term.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Sungarden Investors Club get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Delivers Opening Remarks To IF 75th Anniversary Conference

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News

Introduction

It was no surprise to investors that the Federal Reserve's FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee) which dictates short-term interest rates held rates steady at 4.25-4.50% at their June 18th meeting.

Futures markets had

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This article was written by

Jack Bowman
5.43K Followers

Writer, registered investment advisor, former economics teacher, with many other hats that I wear.

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I am a contributing analyst for the Sungarden Investors Club where I teach investors how to make better portfolio decisions, focusing on risk management, and total return investing. Regularly, I contribute as a co-author with Sungarden Investment Publishing AKA Rob Isbitts, the club's founder.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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