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Investment Thesis
Since the last coverage, Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE:HIMS) stock has delivered a stock return of 89.5%, far beyond the S&P 500’s (SP500) -0.85% decline. The last thesis was
Why The Hims & Hers Health Rally Has Room To Run
Summary
- Hims & Hers reported 2.4 million subscribers in Q1 FY25, a 38% YoY increase from 1.74 million in Q1 FY24.
- Personalized treatments now make up 58% of the subscriber base, with 70% of new users choosing customized care in Q1.
- Monthly online revenue per subscriber rose 50% YoY to $84, driven by high adoption of tailored daily treatments.
- Dermatology subscribers grew 50% YoY, with 80% using personalized solutions and 20-point retention gains since the launch of daily regimens.
- Q1 FY25 revenue reached $586 million (+111% YoY), supporting FY27 targets of $3.4B revenue and $19.82B market cap (+45% upside).
Hi, I'm Yiannis. Spotting winners before they break out is what I do best.Experience: Previously worked at Deloitte and KPMG in external/internal auditing and consulting. Education: Chartered Certified Accountant, Fellow Member of ACCA Global, with BSc and MSc degrees from U.K. business schools. Investment Style: Spotting high-potential winners before they break out, focusing on asymmetric opportunities (with at least upside potential of 2-3X outweighing the downside risk). By leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights, we seek to maximize long-term compounding while protecting against capital impairment.Risk management is paramount—we seek a strong margin of safety to protect against capital impairment while maximizing long-term compounding. Our 4-5 year investment horizon allows us to ride out volatility, ensuring that patience, discipline, and intelligent capital allocation drive outsized returns over time.Investment Methodology: Identifying High-Conviction Opportunities1️⃣ Leadership & Management Analysis • Proven track record in scaling businesses. • Smart capital allocation and insider ownership. • Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance. 2️⃣ Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning • Strong technology moat and first-mover advantage. • Network effects that drive exponential growth. • Market penetration in high-growth industries. 3️⃣ Financial Health & Risk Management • Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow. • Strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway. • Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness. 4️⃣ Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward • Revenue multiples vs. peers and DCF modeling. • Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis. • Ensuring downside protection with massive upside. 5️⃣ Portfolio Construction & Risk Control • Core Positions (50-70%) – High-confidence, stable plays. • Growth Bets (20-40%) – High-risk, high-reward opportunities. • Speculative (5-10%) – Moonshot disruptors with massive potential.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of HIMS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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