The Simply Good Foods Company: Packaged For Growth, Priced For Value

Abdul-Rahman Bhery
21 Followers
(13min)

Summary

  • SMPL reported 15.2% revenue growth in Q2 2025, led by Quest and the recent OWYN acquisition, with Quest now contributing 60% of total revenue and OWYN expected to double sales.
  • Despite a slight decline in margins due to OWYN integration, SMPL maintains a strong 10.1% net margin; more than double the sector median of 4.05%.
  • While trading near peers' forward P/E and EV/EBITDA medians, SMPL offers deeper value supported by a forecasted EPS CAGR of 8.4%, above the sector median of 6.06%.
  • Applying a conservative 20x forward P/E and 8.4% EPS growth yields a PEG of 2.3x and a target price of $40.8, implying a 26% upside from current levels.
  • Tariff exposure (15–20% of COGS) and earnings sensitivity to input cost inflation may challenge margins if SMPL cannot pass costs to consumers.

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The Simply Good Foods Company: Strong Growth and Attractive Valuation

Sometimes the tastiest investments come wrapped in protein bars. The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) is a high growth company in a defensive sector. SMPL

This article was written by

21 Followers
I am an enthusiastic equity research and investment analyst with a strong interest in applying my valuation and research skills. I am a certified FMVA (Financial Modeling & Valuation Analyst) and FPWMP (Financial Planning & Wealth Management Professional), credentials that have equipped me with the tools to analyze financial statements, build valuation models, and construct diversified investment portfolios. I participated in the CFA Research Challenge, where I gained practical experience in equity analysis, industry research, and presenting investment recommendations in a real-world setting. In 2023, I joined AIESEC, where I further developed my leadership, communication, and teamwork skills through global exchange and project collaboration. My analytical focus lies in the U.S. equity market, with particular interest in the consumer staples sector, where I believe defensive stocks offer resilient long-term opportunities. I have also worked with a confidential client, preparing investment reports across several sectors including healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials. This role enhanced my ability to evaluate companies across diverse industries and tailor my research approach accordingly. I hold a degree in Finance from the Faculty of Business at Alexandria University, graduating in 2024 with a CGPA of 3.6. I am now seeking to publish well-supported articles that deliver valuable insights to investors.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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