U.S. Stocks Still Expected To Generate Relatively Moderate Returns For Decade Ahead Vs. Recent History

Summary

• US stock market performance is on track to downshift over the next decade vs. the past 10 years.
• The S&P 500 is projected to earn an annualized 5%-plus in the decade ahead, based on the average of five models.
• Our market forecast is roughly half of the 10-12% annualized ten-year performance posted for US stocks since 2024.

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By James Picerno

New analysis by TMC Research highlights the case for tempering expectations for US stock market performance. The average estimate via five models we monitor has ticked down since our previous update nearly two months ago. We’re currently