Micron: HBM Momentum Isn't Enough To Justify This Price

(7min)

Summary

  • Micron Technology, Inc.'s Q3 FY2025 results beat expectations, with revenue up 36.6% YoY and margins showing recovery, driven by a favorable DRAM/data center mix.
  • NAND revenue grew faster than DRAM QoQ, but pricing remains weak; management is cautious about capacity due to a challenging market environment.
  • Tariff risks appear more contained than previously feared, and AI-driven demand is fueling optimism for continued growth into 2026, especially in HBM.
  • Despite strong momentum, I remain cautious due to the stretched price-to-book valuation and will wait for a better entry point before upgrading my MU rating.

Micron office building in San Jose, California, USA - June 8, 2023.

JHVEPhoto

The last time I wrote about Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), I issued a Sell rating. My reasoning came down to two main points: first, the risk that consumer demand could be disrupted by escalating tariffs; and second, the company’s inability to deliver

This article was written by

I'm a full-time analyst and portfolio manager of a technology fund with 5 years of experience. I graduated in Mechanical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and École Centrale de Lyon (France). I'm currently licensed by the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM) as both a portfolio manager and an investment consultant. I also completed CFA Level II in 2024. I previously worked in the oil and gas sector before making a career change. I began studying global equities to invest my own money, with one of my earliest studies focusing on NVDA in 2017. Once I started diving into the semiconductor sector, I couldn't get enough of it. As a mechanical engineer, I'm an enthusiast of disruptive technologies, particularly in hardware-related fields. On this platform, I'll mainly be sharing investment ideas in semiconductors, robotics, and energy. I believe in investing in companies within oligopolistic sectors with high barriers to entry. I also tend to avoid smaller companies, as my experience has shown that the perceived risks in such companies are often underestimated. I really like writing and have published some books on other subjects. I hope my articles on Seeking Alpha can provide small investors with great investment ideas. My investment approach emphasizes growth at a reasonable price, primarily with a mid- to long-term investment horizon. If you have any questions or comments on my thesis, please reach out via direct message or leave a comment on the article. Keep investing!

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

About MU Stock

SymbolLast Price% Chg
Market Cap
PE
Yield
Rev Growth (YoY)
Short Interest
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on MU

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
MU
--
MU:CA
--