The Fed's Dangerous Game: This Smells Like 2007

Jun. 27, 2025 11:09 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SPX), NDX, SP500, DJI, , , 4 Comments

Summary

  • The Fed's decision to hold rates is overly hawkish, ignoring weakening economic signals in housing and employment.
  • Current market conditions mirror 2007, with bullish sentiment masking deteriorating fundamentals and rising recession risks.
  • Real rates are effectively rising as inflation falls, making monetary policy more restrictive despite unchanged nominal rates.
  • I recommend caution and diversification as hidden cracks in the economy grow, and global equities offer better value and currency exposure.

Stock market crash

Thesis Summary

The Federal Reserve decided not to cut rates again, and though a wait-and-see approach could seem prudent, it may actually turn out to be overly hawkish.

The economy is slowly showing signs of weakening, which can be seen in

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This article was written by

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James Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth.

The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide investors of all levels in their journey. Features include a The Pragmatic Investor Portfolio, weekly market update newsletter, actionable trades, technical analysis, and a chat room. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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