Commodities: OPEC+ Surprises With A Larger Supply Increase

Jul. 07, 2025 1:40 AM ETBrent Futures (CO1:COM), , , , , , , , , ,

Summary

  • ICE Brent is trading lower this morning after OPEC+ agreed on a larger-than-expected supply hike of 548k b/d for August, more than the 411k b/d increase seen in the preceding months.
  • If OPEC+ were to go with a similar increase for September, it would mean that the group has not only fully restored the intended 2.2m b/d of supply but also added close to 300k b/d of additional supply.
  • Larger supply hikes increase the scale of the surplus in the oil market later in the year. This supports the view that there’s further downside for oil prices.

Aerial view of coastal port and oil storage

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By Warren Patterson, Ewa Manthey

Energy - OPEC+ goes with a larger supply hike

ICE Brent is trading lower this morning after OPEC+ agreed on a larger-than-expected supply hike of 548k b/d for August, more than the 411k b/d

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