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A couple of months ago, I was cautious about Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA). This was not because of any doubt about its technological leadership, but because expectations were priced for perfection in a
Performance Vs. Expectations: Rethinking Nvidia And AMD Valuations
Summary
- Nvidia Corporation remains my core AI infrastructure holding, supported by strong fundamentals, robust demand, and a durable developer ecosystem despite elevated valuations and China risks.
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. offers tactical upside as a less crowded, less geopolitically exposed play, with growing traction in sovereign AI and inference workloads, but faces execution risks.
- I recommend maintaining Nvidia as a core holding and using AMD for tactical adjustments, while trimming AMD from the core semiconductor portfolio for now.
- No fresh entries in either stock are advised at current valuations; hedge structural risks in Nvidia with puts and await valuation compression or new catalysts.
I am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a former Vice President at Barclays, I led teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, developing a deep expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis. Alongside my research partner (also my wife), I co-author investment research, combining our complementary strengths to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights. Our approach blends rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation. We have a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, aiming to provide actionable ideas for investors seeking to outperform the market.
Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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