Weekly Indicators: Smooth Sailing

New Deal Democrat
4.75K Followers

Summary

  • Weekly high-frequency indicators show the U.S. economy remains resilient, with coincident indicators turning more positive and short leading indicators improving to positive territory.
  • Long leading indicators remain neutral, as an improved yield curve is offset by persistent weakness in housing and corporate profits estimated to decline for a second consecutive quarter.
  • Commodity and financial indicators improved, while stocks reached new all-time highs before retreating slightly on renewed tariff concerns.
  • Despite some negative signals in monthly data, current weekly data suggests the economy continues to expand, with no imminent recession indicated.

sailing ship in the sea against the blue sky.

LexisJan/iStock via Getty Images

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because, while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or

This article was written by

4.75K Followers
New Deal democrat As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 yeas ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long leading, short leading, coincident, lagging and long lagging indicators. I also focus particularly on their effects on average working and middle class Americans.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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