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The Trump administration has just imposed new tariffs on key trade partners, including a hefty 30% on the EU and Mexico. While these will only be effective as of August 1st, the U.S. is now in a situation
Markets Aren't Calling Trump's Bluff - They're Pricing A USD Crisis
Summary
- The S&P 500’s 6.43% YTD gain in USD masks a decline when measured against gold (-14.86%), BTC (-18.76%), and DXY (-3.31%), reflecting the USD’s collapse rather than a true rally.
- Trump’s new aggressive tariffs, including 30% on the EU and Mexico, and fiscal policies like the “Big, Beautiful, Bill” are driving USD weakness by increasing debt and economic uncertainty.
- Markets are not ignoring tariffs but pricing in a loss of USD credibility. Türkiye’s currency collapse due to central bank interference can be a tale of caution for what's next.
- To hedge turmoil, I favor real assets—U.S. equities, Bitcoin, and gold—while minimizing USD cash exposure, expecting equities to rally, especially if the USD weakens further.
I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s the reason I never try to time the market and I only buy stocks if I am willing to hold them for at least 10 years.When it comes to fundamentals, I think everybody knows the market is forward looking, but few truly understand what that means. I don’t look at a P/E number and decide to buy if a stock is “cheap”. I see markets as literally just the meeting point between demand and supply. Predicting human behavior is the key.That’s why I always try to understand what the market is seeing in a stock beyond the numbers, which often implies trying to understand sectors, industries and long term growth trends. My approach requires ingenuity, curiosity and a good dose of naivete, as well as being comfortable in (sometimes) going against the current.I am currently bullish AMD, PLTR, TSLA, broad US equities and Bitcoin. I am based in Geneva, Switzerland (hence my SA name) and I have a Master’s Degree in Business. If you are looking for daily macro, geopolitics & investing nuggets, you can follow me on Twitter @GenevaInvestor. Friend "Rex Investing" is also a contributor to Seeking Alpha. All opinions and analysis are exclusively my own.
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