June CPI Jumps, Blame Tariffs

Jul. 15, 2025 12:30 PM ETS&P 500 Index (SPX), SPY, VOO, IVV, SP500, NDX, QQQ, DIA, DJI, RTY, IWM, , , , , , , , , , 16 Comments
Jack Bowman
5.9K Followers

Summary

  • Inflation has broken its downtrend, with CPI rising to 2.7% and core CPI at 2.9%, driven by tariff-related pressures.
  • Goods inflation is reversing last year's deflation/disinflation, as tariffs on major trading partners push companies to pass costs to consumers.
  • The Fed's caution on rate cuts appears justified; I expect only a small cut in September, with further cuts delayed if inflation persists.
  • Watch next month's CPI for tariff-prone item trends. Persistent inflation and strong corporate earnings would confirm tariffs as the culprit.

Nice jump by Jack Russell Terrier dog catching flying disk

alexei_tm

Introduction

On July 15th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") released the latest consumer price index ("CPI"), a common measure of inflation.

This is a break in the downtrend that's been ongoing this year, and a jump that was

This article was written by

5.9K Followers
Writer, registered investment advisor, and economics educator from Southern California. Author of The Macro Obsession, a weekly newsletter on macroeconomics, markets, and investing.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

About SPX Ticker

SymbolLast Price% Chg
52 Week High
52 Week Low
Open
Prev. Close
Compare to Peers

More on SPX

Related Stocks

SymbolLast Price% Chg
QQQ
--
SPY
--
DIA
--
IVV
--
IWM
--
VOO
--
SP500
--
NDX
--
DJI
--
RTY
--
SPX
--