Warren Buffett's Stock Market Indicator Suggests The Check Engine Light Is On

Jul. 28, 2025 9:30 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SP500), NDX, DJI, SPY, DIA, QQQ, IVV, VOO, IWM, SPX, , , , , , , , , 67 Comments
Hawkinvest
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Summary

  • Despite market highs and AI optimism, I see red flags like extreme valuations, record margin debt, and speculative froth signaling caution.
  • The Buffett Indicator and Fear & Greed Index both point to overvaluation and excessive risk-taking, reminiscent of past market tops.
  • Economic data—rising hardship withdrawals, cooling labor market, and weak manufacturing—suggest underlying fragility despite the bullish narrative.
  • I'm staying partially invested but raising cash, as discipline is key when warning signs flash, even if the rally continues for now.

Federal Reserve, Washington DC, USA

Jeremy Edwards

It's hard to be bearish when the market is at or near all time highs, but as a contrarian investor, going against the herd and avoiding groupthink goes with the territory. Aside from the brief meltdown in April due to

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Long-time stock market investor focused on strategic buying opportunities with dividend and value stocks. This investment strategy has resulted in a near 5 star rating on Tipranks.com and over 9,000 followers on Seeking Alpha. Follow me on Twitter for my latest trading ideas: @Hawkinvest1

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GOOGL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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