Weekly Indicators: Privately Sourced And Government Data Just Got Critically Important

Summary

• Long leading indicators remain mixed, with some improvement in real money supply and corporate profits, but housing and credit metrics still weak.
• Short leading indicators are positive, led by strong stock market performance and low initial jobless claims, suggesting no near-term recession risk.
• Coincident indicators, especially consumer spending and restaurant activity, remain robust, supporting a positive current economic outlook.
• Caution is warranted as monthly data is flashing warning signs, and political intervention with BLS data reporting increases the importance of private and alternative data sources.

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Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before

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