Technical Note: Time For A Turn

Summary

• Stocks are vulnerable to a correction after a 33% rally, with mounting risks from tariff reversals and concerning economic data.
• Consumer weakness, especially among younger demographics, and high housing costs signal broader economic challenges that threaten retail and GDP.
• Liquidity from unprecedented government money printing has yet to trigger inflation, but history suggests significant inflationary pressures are likely by 2H25.
• I recommend using market strength to exit longs and establish shorts, as volatility and political/economic risks create opportunities for nimble traders.

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Macro Perspective

Our April 7^th Buy reflected pronounced fear and heavy selling, suggesting a change of ownership that typically comes with market bottoms. Today, 32.9% higher, SPX is in a very different position. News that Courts are reviewing President Trump’s tariffs could signal a potentially

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.