Palantir: Q2 Preview, Government Contract Risk (Rating Downgrade)

Summary

  • I am double downgrading Palantir from strong buy to hold due to extreme valuation after a 105% YTD run-up.
  • Despite strong fundamentals and a record $10B Army contract, the stock trades at over 265x forward earnings, pricing in years of hypergrowth.
  • Government contract risks are rising, with the DoD exploring alternatives and increased scrutiny on Palantir's premium pricing.
  • Q2 could be a record quarter, but even blowout results may not drive the stock higher given current euphoria and valuation risk.
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Co-Authored by Noah Cox and Brock Heilig

Investment Thesis

I am double downgrading shares of Palantir (PLTR) from a strong buy to a hold. Although shares of the software company have been soaring and are up more than 105% year-to-date (with

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This account is managed by Noah's Arc Capital Management. Our goal is provide Wall Street level insights to main street investors. Our research focus is mainly on 20th century stocks (old economy) undergoing a 21st century transformation, but occasionally we'll write on companies that help transform 20th century firms as well. We look for innovations in a business model that will cause a stock to change dramatically.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Noah Cox (main account author) is the managing partner of Noah’s Arc Capital Management. His views in this article are not necessarily reflective of the firms. Nothing contained in this note is intended as investment advice. It is solely for informational purposes. Invest at your own risk.

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