M Kevin Flynn

I always enjoy Kevin's work. Check the Tolstoy quote though - it's a bit off!

Thank You Kevin! JD

Great article Kevin !

Kevin, good to see you back in the game. Looking forward to your future articles.

Kevin Flynn, Great Article! I got out of all, APPL,INTC, and GE. All sectors have not stopped dropping. Commodities are the only investment that looks good, I don't see any changes in the direction but down for the rest of the year. And as far as Mr.Trump goes. I have said the only reason he is running, is to wreck the GOP and give Mrs. Clinton a path to the White House. When Sara Palin gave Trump her endorsement, saying he had seen the light..

Thanks for clarifying your "Fade the Rally" rec. I initially read your thoughts correctly as reducing equity risk. All prudent advice, Kevin.

Besides the Icahn comments, the apple earnings, the huge airbus miss and the placing of IBM on negative watch by S&P. people are realizing it aint so good out there.

In addition to the normal recession trajectory we are on, there is a prediction from several banks high yield departments that this will be the largest default cycle ever. The high yield default spike usually coincides with every recession due to lower profit and inability to re-borrow. I can't see any sign or reason for the predicted economic rally in 2nd half 2016 so it seems that we will continue on this course
thanks for the article

Kevin,

I enjoy reading your articles and certainly share your sentiment. How the U.S. economy manages to obtain escape velocity from the global deflationary trend is unfathomable. The politically driven motives of central banks are certainly not helping things. It is only a matter of time until we see a more formidable deterioration.

The fast majority of leading indicators (many of which you have cited in previous articles) have been painting an ominous picture for the past few quarters. Declining profits/revenues, rising inventory/sales and the bottoming of the unemployment rate all state that we are on borrowed time.

Based upon previous cycles, it would seem to me that the U.S. has a high probability of officially entering recession in the 1st half of 2017. That being said, your advice to reduce risk is justified.

What is really blowing my mind is the amount of debt that has been accumulated to obtain virtually no GDP in the last 4 years. At the end of the day its debt that stops economic cycles everything else is noise.

Total Non-Financial Debt increased $1.912 TN in 2015 to a record $45.149 TN. NFD has increased $10.218 TN, or 29%, over the past seven years. NFD to GDP ended 2015 at a record 252%. For perspective, this ratio began the eighties at 138%, the nineties at 179% and the 2000’s at 179%.

Kevin, thanks for putting the latest business and earnings data into perspective. It's hard to avoid becoming a cheerleader and jumping on the bandwagon when the market rallies like it has since Feb 11, But it still has been unable to surpass the May 2015 high of 2130 in the S&P500. I'm skeptical of this rally until it can do that.

Pretty much agree but the market ignores everything but the Fed until it doesn't and we expect that to happen soon. Changed from net long to 100% short over the past few days. As a point of reference we were 100% long at S&P 1810.

That's my strategy. Very well written.

The 3pm pump is in full force by the way....full 10th of a percent gain every 2 minutes now will rally the day while the cheerleaders (watching the dollar go into the toilet) stand by with their Yellen foam fingers picking their noses.

I agree with Kevin. Fade now and fade more aggressively if stocks rise into the spring and early summer.

I'm not a short-seller, so I don't need to worry if it keeps rallying another week or three. I've been gradually selling into this rally, and intend to remain underweight in equities, and very underweight in foreign equities. Thanks for this article, Kevin.

The beginning of the end is also confirmed here in San Francisco by VC, tech, and real estate trends. Duplicative business models targeting the same narrow unprofitable audience are no longer getting funded with new money, even while desperate residential developers lever up in debt to build more homes for soon-to-be laid off workers in those same start-ups. The end is not here yet, but the signs are in place.

Great stuff, thanks. Always look forward to the author's articles.

Thank You again Mr. Flynn! JD

Thanks for the effort.

Thanks for the truthiness.