EKIN KIZILKAYA
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) have emerged joint winners in a list compiled by pharma analytics firm Evaluate, ranking companies with the most blockbusters approved over the past decade.
The ranking issued last week took into account nearly 200 drugs approved by the U.S. FDA between 2014 and 2023 and generated or projected to generate more than $1B in peak annual sales over a 14-year timeframe through 2028.
According to Evaluate’s forecasts, out of 487 drugs approved by the FDA over the past decade, 193 were expected to bring more than $1B in peak-year sales, meaning about 39% of new drugs had the potential to become blockbusters.
Eli Lilly (LLY) and Astra (AZN) were the most successful in developing blockbusters, winning FDA approval for 13 such assets each, while Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) (OTCQX:RHHBF), and Bristol Myers (NYSE:BMY) trailed with ten each.
Lilly’s (LLY) GLP-1s, Mounjaro, and Zepbound, used for diabetes and obesity, headed the list of blockbusters with ~$12.1B and ~$10.6B in peak annual sales expected in 2028, respectively.
As for Astra (AZN), cancer therapy, Tagrisso, and heart disease therapy, Farxiga led its blockbusters with ~$7.8B and $7.4B in peak sales projected for 2028 and 2025, respectively.
While Anglo Swedish drugmaker had only $205B of market cap, less than a third of LLY’s, the actual and projected sales of its blockbusters added up to $306B compared to LLY’s $283B, Evaluate said, noting that the U.K.-listed pharma giant “is punching above its weight.”
Pfizer (PFE), whose COVID shot Comirnaty developed with BioNTech (BNTX), became the top blockbuster with ~$41.2B in peak sales in 2021, was placed last.
Its rivals in the COVID space, Merck (MRK) and Moderna (MRNA), didn’t reach the top ten. Neither did LLY’s rivals in the obesity space, Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Amgen (AMGN), which, according to Seeking Alpha readers, is best positioned to challenge the duo in the lucrative market for weight loss drugs.
In fact, none of Amgen’s (AMGN) drugs were among the 50 biggest blockbusters, while Novo’s (NVO) popular weight loss medications, Ozempic and Wegovy, made the cut, respectively, with ~$22.2B and ~$15.8B in peak annual sales expected in 2028.
Gilead (GILD), the maker of COVID therapy, Veklury was sixth on the list, while GSK (GSK), Novartis (NVS), AbbVie (ABBV), and Pfizer (PFE) rounded out the last five.
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