At the end of last month, I started a $1 million theoretical short portfolio with 7 holdings. Here is the original portfolio for those who haven't read the article:
| Company | Shares | Buy Price | Start Value |
| Amazon (AMZN) | 700 | $217.32 | $152,124 |
| Sprint (S) | 60,000 | $2.72 | $163,200 |
| Netflix (NFLX) | 1,600 | $84.14 | $134,624 |
| National Bank of Greece (NBG) | 250,000 | $0.59 | $147,500 |
| Suntech Power (STP) | 44,500 | $3.08 | $137,060 |
| Apollo (APOL) | 3,000 | $48.16 | $144,480 |
| Orbitz (OWW) | 63,000 | $1.92 | $120,960 |
Now here's a look at how things stand currently:
| Company | Current | Gain/Loss | % Change |
| Amazon | $197.14 | $14,126 | 9.29% |
| Sprint | $2.62 | $6,000 | 3.68% |
| Netflix | $78.06 | $9,728 | 7.23% |
| National Bank of Greece | $0.4899 | $25,025 | 16.97% |
| Suntech Power | $2.34 | $32,390 | 24.03% |
| Apollo* | $45.24 | $8,760 | 6.06% |
| Orbitz | $3.07 | ($72,450) | -59.90% |
*Apollo sold on Thursday, read below for details.
Overall, the portfolio has gained about 2.75%, which trails the S&P 500's 5.4% loss since then. Unfortunately, Orbitz reported a great quarter and the stock jumped 45% overnight, and has added to its gains since then. If you take out Orbitz, the portfolio is up over 11.3%. This shows how one bad decision can eliminate most or all of your gains. But hey, at least it's still down over time. You'd be making money.
So here's why I still like these positions. Amazon has a forward P/E of 100, and I don't see that lasting for much longer. I've detailed my bearishness on Sprint in several articles, so feel free to read those if you are interested. I think Netflix has had its run, and its time is up. I'm looking for another bad quarter. National Bank of Greece in my mind has no value, so I will hold that until it gets to zero. The solar industry is in trouble now, and the Chinese names are faring much worse, so Suntech remains a viable short. Orbitz has killed me so far, but if you look at the charts, these huge pops usually don't last. I may need to cover that position at a loss, but I think we will go down from here.
I was not going to update this portfolio until the end of the month, but I have decided to swap out an old position for a new one. Last week, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) reported a terrible revenue number and the stock was hammered over growth concerns. It was below $40 but has risen back to almost $52. I will short 2,800 shares of GMCR as I think it will go lower. The GMCR trade was as of Thursday, so that position gained about $3,500 thanks to Friday's 2.4% loss.
To make up for that, I eliminated my position in Apollo. I could have taken gains on either Suntech or National Bank of Greece, which have done extremely well, but I expect those names to go even lower. I've made 6% on Apollo, and since it's the position I follow least of the seven-- I'm going to get out. Everything else will stay the same.
While the overall portfolio's performance has lagged the markets in general, I still would say it's been a few good weeks. A 2.75% gain in just 15 trading days would be great on an annualized basis.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
