TAL Education Group: Upside Remains

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DX2 Capital
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Summary

  • Education is a top priority for Chinese families and the market for K-12 education has been growing rapidly in China.
  • TAL Education Group is a leader in the industry and one of the biggest beneficiaries of the growth in education expenditure.
  • Online education is the trend for the industry and where the growth will be coming from.
  • DCF valuation shows upside in stock price.
  • The shift in young demographic is the biggest risk factor for TAL.

TAL Education Group

There have been several bullish articles written on TAL (NYSE:TAL) in recent months by other contributors here and here. They both provided a good overview of TAL's business, performance, and reasons to long the stock. This article takes a deeper look into today's K-12 education and tutoring industry in China.

Overview of Chinese Education Market

In ancient China, the governors then used a system called "Keju" to select talented individuals into the government. Keju is a test, it requires candidates to write about a selected topic; the candidates would then be valued based solely on how well-written the article is. Those who scored in the top-three would be known immediately around the country and be chosen for important positions in the government; in other words, the test brought people prestige and wealth simultaneously. Keju has been one of the most important inventions in Chinese history, since it provided a common ground for people with talents, regardless of their family backgrounds or any other external conditions; it remained the simplest way for people to rise in social status -- a farmer could become a governor in no time, as long as he/she is capable of thinking strategically and expressing ideas eloquently.

Today in China, the Keju system no longer exists. However, its influence over Chinese education remains. How the Chinese selected talents from ancient times became how they evaluate students today - by tests and mostly based on the scores of the tests. These tests provide a common ground for same-age teenagers to compete with each other, regardless of any other condition except their scores. Hence, the test system in Chinese education is similar to Keju, since it is the only way to rise in social status. As a result, Chinese parents who wanted to make better lives but failed to do so due to various reasons devoted all of their

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DX2 Capital profile picture
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DX2 Capital is a New York-based global long/short equity fund that primarily invests in growth companies, based in Asia, North America, and Latin America, that are shaping the world or have the potential to become future market leaders. The fund invests across all market cap spectrums and focuses on the technology, financials, and retail sectors.We believe in a balanced portfolio with global diversification. We focus on risk-adjusted return measured by Sharpe and Sortino ratios.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long TAL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Research performed by Isaiah He from DX2 Capital Management

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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