In this article, we examine the significant weekly order flow and market structure developments driving NYSEARCA:XLE price action.
As noted in last week’s XLE Weekly, the primary expectation for this week’s auction was for price discovery lower following last week’s failure to drive price above key supply, 67.42s-66.80s. This week’s primary expectation did not play out as retracement to key demand saw buying interest emerge before driving price higher to 67.69s into week’s end, settling at 67.61s.
NinjaTrader
01 – 05 April 2019:
This week’s auction buying interest early in Monday’s trade as last Friday’s late sellers failed to hold the auction. Price discovery higher developed, achieving a stopping point, 67.13s, where selling interest emerged within prior key supply overhead. A minor structural sell excess developed to 67.22s early in Tuesday’s auction, driving price lower to 66.37s. Buying interest emerged, 66.54s, into Tuesday’s close.
Tuesday’s late buyers failed to hold the auction in Wednesday’s trade as sell-side continuation developed to 65.66s. Selling interest emerged, 65.89s, into Wednesday’s close. Minor probe lower developed early in Thursday’s auction, achieving the weekly stopping point low, 65.61s, within key demand below. Sellers trapped there, halting the sell-side sequence. Rotation higher ensued through Thursday’s trade to 66.49s, before buying interest emerged, 66.36s, in Thursday’s close. Thursday's late buyers held the auction as a gap higher open developed in Friday’s auction before buying interest drove price higher through key supply, achieving the weekly stopping point high, 67.69s, ahead of Friday’s close, settling at 67.61s.
NinjaTrader
This week’s auction saw balance trade between key supply and demand until a buy-side breakout developed in Friday’s auction to 67.69s. Within the broader context, this week’s auction was a buy-side breakout attempt above the recent multi-week balance, 66.93s-63.31s.
Looking ahead, the focus into next week will center upon response to this
