Doubling Down On Madrigal Pharmaceuticals

Summary

  • The market is overreacting to the announcement of a secondary offering of 1.2 million shares.
  • The first patient dosed in its second Phase 3 clinical trial, MAESTRO-NAFLD-1, in December.
  • Impressive cash position.

Just over a year ago, I published my initial research on Madrigal (NASDAQ:MDGL) with high hopes that have not been met. Determined, I am doubling down on my investment. Down roughly 55% compared to the price of my initial entry, under $90 provides a buying opportunity that likely won't last much longer for this promising company.

Currently, the share price is sitting around where the initial breakout in 2018 was at $85.

(Source: StockCharts.com)

The historically low valuation that Madrigal currently faces is shocking when you look at the company's actions. Unfortunately, I invested at the wrong period, but I am still bullish on my stance. In the past year, I have been selling covered calls to collect premiums while the price continued to dwindle, lowering my cost average, but now, with the stock under $90, I am adding more to my position.

The price declined following a large offering by the company in December, where Madrigal priced a previously announced underwritten secondary offering through Bay City Capital LLC, of 1,200,000 shares of Madrigal’s common stock at $107.85 per share. This came as a result of exercising a shelf offering from 2018, and the company did not receive any funds for this offering. No wonder the stock has declined from December by nearly 40%. At the current price point, though, I see this as a gross overreaction by the market. I believe we will see $100 by the end of Q1.

Initial Dosing - Resmetirom (MGL-3196)

Madrigal recently dosed its first patient in its second Phase III clinical trial, MAESTRO-NAFLD-1 with its first-in-class, once-daily, oral thyroid hormone receptor-beta selective agonist MGL-3196.

The initial Phase III study (MAESTRO-NASH) is being done with 900 patients, and the primary surrogate endpoint on biopsy will be NASH resolution, with at least a 2-point reduction in NAS (NASH Activity

This article was written by

Scientia Equity Research (Previously "Biotech Buys") is dedicated to providing an in-depth analysis of publicly traded companies within the biotechnology industry who have upcoming FDA events and deadlines.  I will focus on under-covered companies throughout the pharmaceutical and biotech industries, providing both long and short ideas.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long MDGL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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