Week 26 MDA Breakout Forecast: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge

Summary

• Two sample Breakout Stocks for Week 26 with better than 10% short-term upside potential and a Dow 30 breakout selection.
• Last week three stocks peaked over 9.7%+ with both ASPN and XCUR gaining over 11.5%+ for members in less than three trading days.
• The streak of weekly picks gaining over 10% in less than four or five trading days continues to 133 out of 162 trading weeks (82.1%) not including multiple gainers.
• Forecast trends for next week included below with the S&P 500 average daily gain patterns YTD and Federal Reserve weekly balance sheet data to anticipate future market conditions.
• The Momentum Gauges™ remain in lower levels of momentum conditions closing Friday at Negative 13 and Positive 72.
• This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Value & Momentum Breakouts. Get started today »

Introduction

The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than five years. This subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now reached 162 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research.

In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members' request into 2020, I now generate 4 selections each week, 2 Dow 30 picks, and a separate article for monthly Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks. I now provide six different ways to beat the S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public.

Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a four- or five-day trading week remains at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10% gainers in a single week. More than 200 stocks have gained over 10% in a five-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017.

2020 YTD Breakout Portfolio Returns

The Breakout Picks are high volatility selections for short-term gains, but with no selections below $2/share, under 100k avg daily volume, or less than $100 million market cap. The returns were at +41.50% in the first nine weeks of 2020, consistent with exiting the portfolio following the negative Momentum Gauge™ signal of Feb. 24th (red weeks below).

The cumulative average returns YTD are +112.7% compared to the S&P 500 -4.12% over the same period. The very best case timed returns at +250.5%, and in the worst case, fixed buy/hold, do nothing, equal weighted returns through Week 25, the returns are -22.74%.

So far YTD, 38 stock selections in the past 25 weeks have gained over 10% in less than five days with 14 of those short-term picks gaining over 19% and as high as +77%. I have removed the best-case returns from the

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long NAIL, SOXL, TNA, BNKU. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.