Natural Resource Partners: Another Obscure Problem Sees This 10% Yield Living On Borrowed Time

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Summary

  • The high distribution yield of almost 10% from Natural Resource Partners offers income investors plenty to love but their coal exposure is problematic in the long term.
  • I discovered another problem upon reviewing their latest annual SEC filing that sees their distributions living on borrowed time.
  • Their restrictive leverage ratio covenant has forced them to defer half of their preferred distribution payments.
  • If this is not fully rectified by the end of 2021, they will be forced to completely suspend their common distributions.
  • After reviewing their situation, they are effectively forced to play a waiting game that could go either way and thus I believe that maintaining my neutral rating is appropriate.

Introduction

Natural Resource Partners (NYSE:NRP) might offer income investors plenty to love with their well-covered high distribution yield of almost 10% but at the same time, their coal exposure poses one big problem, as my previous article discussed. During the subsequent months, their results for the fourth quarter of 2020 have been released and whilst digging through their latest annual SEC filing, I discovered another obscure problem that sees their high distribution yield of almost 10% living on borrowed time.

Executive Summary & Ratings

Since many readers are likely short on time, the table below provides a very brief executive summary and ratings for the primary criteria that was assessed. This Google Document provides a list of all my equivalent ratings as well as more information regarding my rating system. The following section provides a detailed analysis for those readers who are wishing to dig deeper into their situation.

Natural Resources Partners ratings

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Detailed Analysis

Natural Resource Partners cash flows

Natural Resource Partners notes 1

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Instead of simply assessing distribution coverage through distributable cash flow, I prefer to utilize free cash flow since it provides the toughest criteria and best captures the true impact on their financial position. The main difference between the two is that the former ignores the capital expenditure that relates to growth projects, which given the very high capital intensity of their industry can create a material difference.

It was little surprise that a partnership whose operations focus very heavily on coal was severely impacted during the Covid-19 economic downturn, the pain of which is easily visible in their cash flow performance. They saw their operating cash flow decrease by 34.98% year on year during 2020 with it falling to only $89m versus $137m during 2019, however, if removing the impacts of working capital movements the decrease expands even further to a very large 53.54% year on year. Since these results both represent

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I primarily focus on income investments, as well as deep value and contrarian opportunities.

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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