FG Trade
Introduction
Several months ago, I wrote in some detail about why, almost 6 months after both the long and short leading indicators had turned negative, no recession had appeared.
In that article, I noted 3 reasons: (1) the decline in gas
Recession? Maybe In Production, But Outweighed By Still-Strong Employment
Summary
- The latest data on manufacturing and wholesale sales, and industrial production, indicate a substantial likelihood that these have peaked.
- But real personal income and employment have continued to grow.
- Fed rate hikes have finally caused total housing construction and employment to turn down, but not nearly enough to be significant yet.
- But lower gas prices, and pent-up hiring demand from spending on services are keeping a larger share of the economy growing still.
New Deal democrat As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 yeas ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long leading, short leading, coincident, lagging and long lagging indicators. I also focus particularly on their effects on average working and middle class Americans.
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