Will The Fed Meeting Support A September Rate Cut Forecast?

Summary

• The market’s convinced that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at the Sep. 18 policy meeting.
• Fed funds futures are pricing in a near certainty that tomorrow’s announcement will leave the target rate unchanged at a 5.25%-to-5.50% range.
• The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield certainly aligns with futures market’s outlook.

Richard Drury

The market’s convinced that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at the Sep. 18 policy meeting. Tomorrow’s central bank announcement and press conference is still a wild card, but only by the smallest of margins, according to market sentiment. Indeed, it’s